
Merchants won’t want to take that risk, and it will only increase Groupon’s adverse selection problems. But filing a lawsuit would be suicidal for Groupon. I haven’t yet heard of an actual lawsuit being filed against a merchant. A more cynical view would be that Groupon is delaying payments because investors are closely watching its cash flow numbers. But at this stage, Groupon’s operations should be smooth enough that such things don’t happen. Groupon has enough cash in the bank that I don’t think it is malevolence just incompetence that keeps it from paying its merchants. On a true apples-to-apples basis, Groupon is slowing much faster than its financials indicate.

Even with all of this, Groupon’s gross billings declined quarter over quarter. Increasingly, deals are run for three days or more. It used to be the case that Groupon ran a deal once for 24 hours.
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Although this is economically the right thing to do (it’s good to amortize the cost of sales), investors should be aware that the year-over-year comparables are less meaningful. It’s also bad because the best sales reps leave because Groupon is no longer a ticket to an easy six-figure compensation package. But it’s bad for Groupon because the lower volumes mean higher cost of sales. The lower sales volume is a positive for merchants because it means they don’t get inundated. It wasn’t long ago that deals were selling well beyond sales rep estimates.

My wife and I own a spa in Hallandale FL. I would like to share my experience with you as a groupon merchant. The latest sums up a lot of Groupon’s current problems: I’m now starting to get about one of these emails a week. I’ve noticed an uptick in recent months of the emails I’m getting from small businesses claiming that Groupon is threatening to sue them.
